Showing posts with label Ipea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ipea. Show all posts

Friday, November 29, 2019

Awarded research on historical inequality in Brazil


I am very proud to share that my friend and colleague at Ipea Pedro Souza has been awarded the Prêmio Jabuti for his book 'A History of Inequality: the concentration of top incomes in Brazil between 1926-2013'. The Prêmio Jabuti (the "Tortoise Prize") is the most prestigious literary award in the country. The book is based on his PhD thesis, which has already received two national awards btw.

If you read Portuguese, you can buy Pedro's book here, or download his PhD thesis here. There is a paper in English summarizing some of the key findings of his research. I've also posted the English abstract of his thesis below.






Souza, Pedro H. G. F. de. “A desigualdade vista do topo : a concentração de renda entre os ricos no Brasil, 1926-2013”, 12 de setembro de 2016. https://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/22005.

Abstract:
This dissertation uses income tax tabulations to estimate top income shares over the long-run for Brazil. Between 1926 and 2013, the concentration of income at the top of the distribution combined stability and change, diverging from the European and American patterns in the 20th century. Contrary to benign industrialization and modernization theories, there was no overarching, long-term trend. Most of the time the income share of the top 1% of the adult population fluctuated within a 20%--25% range, even in recent years. Still, top income shares had temporary yet significant ups and downs which largely coincided with the country's most important political cycles. The top 1% income share increased during the Estado Novo and World War II, then declined in the early post-war years and even more so in the second half of the 1950s. The 1964 coup d'état reversed that trend and income inequality rose back to post-war levels after a few years of military rule. The 1970s were marked by instability, but top income shares surged again in the 1980s. The share of the 1% then decreased somewhat in the 1990s and perhaps the mid-2000s. There were no real changes since then. In addition, this dissertation analyzes the concentration of income among the rich, provides international comparisons of top income shares, and contrasts the income tax series with estimates from household surveys. The income tax series are also used to compute “corrected” Gini coefficients which take into account the underestimation of top incomes in household surveys. The major research questions are comparative and historically oriented, and I argue in favor of an institutional interpretation of the results. The motivation for and implications of this approach are presented in the more theoretical chapters that precede the empirical analysis. In these chapters, I engage with the history of ideas about inequality and social stratification and highlight the long and heterogeneous tradition of studies about the rich and the wealthy. My main argument is that the academic and political concern with distributional issues flourishes when inequality is conceived in binary or dichotomous terms.

Friday, September 13, 2019

The Access to Opportunities Project, live webinar with preliminary results

This week, on Sept 18 at 7pm (GMT), we will be broadcasting a live webinar to present some of the preliminary results of the Access to Opportunities Project. The webinar will be broadcast in Portuguese on this link and we will also be answering questions about the project.

Here is a quick summary about the project:

How many jobs can one access in less than an hour using public transport? How long does it take to get to your nearest healthcare facility or school? The answers to these questions are a direct result of the urban and transport policies implemented in our cities. These policies largely determine the ease with which people from different social groups and income levels can access employment opportunities, health and education services. These policies play a key role in building more just and inclusive cities and reducing inequalities in access to opportunities. Although the issue of transport accessibility has been widely studied in cities in the Global North, this topic has received much less attention in the global South and particularly in Brazil.

My team and I at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) are launching the Access to Opportunities Project to map and analyze urban accessibility in Brazilian cities. The purpose of the project is to estimate accessibility to job opportunities, schools and health services by public transport, walking, cycling and driving at high spatial resolution for all of the largest urban areas in the country. This year, the project will include public transport accessibility estimates for 6 major cities (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre and Curitiba), as well as walking and cycling accessibility estimates for the 20 largest cities in Brazil. We are planning to expand the project soon to include other urban areas.

The Access to Opportunities Project is carried out in collaboration with the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP - Brazil), and it will bring annual updates on the accessibility landscape of Brazilian cities. One of the expected results of the project is to generate a wealth of data that will be made publicly available to policy makers and researchers, with whom we will be able to collaborate to analzye particular case studies and conduct international comparative research.



Monday, August 12, 2019

geobr: easy access to official spatial data sets of Brazil

I'm glad to annouce that geobr is now officially available on CRAN. Here and here are quick intros on how to use geobr to get easy and quick access to shape files and other official spatial data sets of Brazil. The package currently includes several data sets for various years such as states, regions, municipalities, census tracts, statistical grid and others. The github repository is this, in case you want to keep track of the latest developments.

The package was developed by my team and I at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea). We are constantly working to expand and improve the package, so if you have any suggestions/contributions, please feel free to open an issue on Github.



Tuesday, July 9, 2019

We're hiring research assistants to work with Spatial Data Science at Ipea

A few readers might be interested in this post. We are hiring 4 research assistants to work with (spatial) data science on urban, regional and environmental research and policies at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), in Brasília. Great team with lots of computational resources, rich data sets and plenty of challenging data analyses to improve public policies.

*** All the positions are based in Brasília, Brazil.
 


Monday, July 1, 2019

geobr: shapefiles and official spatial data sets of Brazil in R

In 2012, I published here a blog post about where to find shapefiles of Brazil. Since then, this has become one of the most popular posts in 9 years of the blog. However, the links to the original data sets change every now and then, and it gets a bit tricky to find the most up to date data. My team and I at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) have created geobr, an R package that allows users to easily access shapefiles of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and other official spatial data sets of Brazil.

The geobr package currently includes a variety of data sets, such as the shapefiles of municipalities and states (from 1872 to 2018), census weighting areas, a spatial grid with population count at a resolution of 200 x 200 meters, a geolocated database of health facilities in the country etc. All the data sets are read into R as sf data. We will gradually add other databases to the package, but feel free to make specific requests and suggestions by opening new issues on the GitHub page of geobr or tweeting the hashtag #geobr.

The advantage of geobr: Intuitive syntax that provides easy and quick access to a wide variety shapefiles and official spatial data sets with updated geometries for various years using harmonazied attributes and geographic projections across geographies and years.




Here is a quick intro to geobr:


Thursday, March 21, 2019

Ipea Seminar - Infusing Urban and Regional policy with Geographic Data Science

Today we are having Dani Arribas-Bel (Geographic Data Science Lab, University of Liverpool) presenting a seminar at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea). Daniel (websiteTwitter) will be talking about his research agenda on "Infusing Urban and Regional policy with Geographic Data Science". The seminar will start at 3pm (local time). My apologies this post comes in short notice. This week has been hectic.

Daniel is part of the development team of  PySAL and he is a prolific researcher and also a great enthusiast of open data/software and research reproducibility. In fact, many of his papers (code and data) and teaching material are available on his Github repo.

Summary of the presentation:
The recent explosion in availability of new forms of data poses significant opportunities to how we analyse cities and regions, both in academic and policy contexts. Over the last decade, three families of data have emerged in this context. One is digital traces of individual activity. From credit card transactions, to mobile phone calls, to thoughts and feelings we decide to share through social media, more and more bits of our life are being stored digitally as data that a computer can understand. The second comes from an increasing number of sensors, from traffic controllers to nano-satellites orbiting the Earth, which are constantly recording information about the environment. The third one has existed for longer but has not been available until recently: a few years ago, governments started releasing data on their internal operations that used to be parked in (closed) silos. This presentation will walk through several examples where new forms of data are applied to tackle new questions or obtain new perspectives on long-standing challenges of regional and urban analysis. As part of this whirlwind tour, we will also spend some time trying to understand what the main challenges, methodological advances, and risks that "accidental data” pose are, and will emphasise the tremendous opportunities they unleash.

credit: Dani Arribas-Bel

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

PolicySpace: agent-based modeling for public policy analysis

I've posted before about the "Humans of Simulated New York", a comprehensive agent-based model (ABM) of city life that is being led by Francis Tseng.

On a similar vein, my colleague from Ipea Bernardo Furtado has been developing the PolicySpace project, an agent-based modelling platform for public policy analysis. According to Furtado:


"PolicySpace is an agent-based model, including families, citizens, residences, businesses, markets, taxes, mobility, and municipalities, that allows “what-if” questions. It is an in silico laboratory, of extremely low relative cost. Yet, it is flexible, adaptable, that anticipates trajectories and, quantitatively, measures horizontal effects across sectors, places and times. The book reviews the literature, explains concepts, and describes the methodology. It details the model, its parameters, and the full process. It validates the proposal and illustrates with applications."



The platform allows for the ex-ante evaluation/simulation of public policy alternatives in a way that takes into account the emergent complexity of the interactions between portions of society and institutions, in space and time. PolicySpace was originally designed for the Brazilian case but it is easily adaptable to other contexts. The code is written in Python, it is open source and the full code is available on Github. The platform is also modular, so it can expanded in a flexible way to gradually incorporate different aspects considered to be relevant for a variety of policy realms. For example, Francis Tseng is further expanding the PolicySpace platform to incorporate public and private urban transportation at fine spatial scale.

Earlier this year, Bernardo published a book where he presents a literature review of ABM and where he introduces, validates and demonstrates applications of PolicySpaceThe book PDF is freely available both in English and in Portuguese.

Give Bernardo a shout if you would like to collaborate on the project, use it in your own applications or just give him some feedback.  He is co-organizing a special issue on Complexity Science and Public Policy, so some of you might be interested in that as well.


image credit: Francis Tseng and Bernardo Furtado

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Modeling Complex Systems for Public Policies

Some of my colleagues at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea - Brazil) are organizing a seminar on 'Modeling Complex Systems for Public Policies'. It is a great initiative to bring some of the cutting edge developments in academia to discuss critical challenges faced in the policy world.


The event will have the participation of some great researchers, including Luis Bettencourt and Michael Jacobson (full programme here). The seminar will be held in Brasilia in the beginning of September 2014.













[click on the poster to enlarge it]

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Rise in Transport Costs in Brazil

In June 2013, the rise in Bus fares were the spark for huge protests in more than 80 cities in BrazilIn this report (published in Portuguese last year) we analyze some of the main pricing and funding issues of public transport in Brazil. The rise in transport costs in the country is just of them, and in which govermental policies have played an important role subsidizing gasoline consumption and the purchase of new cars.

For more details and a further discussion on this issue, you may read the report here.

And for now, here are some figures and a chart showing the increase in inflation and its transport components between 2000 and 2012 for the largest Brazilian metropolitan areas.

IPCA (Inflation): 125%
Bus fares: 192%
Gasoline: 122%
Owning a vehicle: 44%

[click on the image to enlarge it]

Label Translation:
  • IPCA = consumer price index
  • Tarifa de ônibus = Bus fare
  • Tarifa de Metro = Subway fare
  • Gasolia = Gasoline
  • Veículo próprio = Owning a vehicle (car or motocycle), including purchase and maintenance expenses.

Monday, March 24, 2014

Modeling Complex Systems for Public Policies Call for consultants

Spread the Words!


The Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) – a Brazilian think-tank linked to the government – is making a request for proposals for eight IDB consultants to contribute with chapters to a book on Complex Systems applied to Public Policies.


Here are the 8 topics:
  1. Complexity methods in education
  2. Complexity methods applied to transport planning
  3. Complexity theory in applied policy worldwide
  4. Cities as complex objects
  5. Economy as a complex object
  6. Society as a complex object
  7. Methods and methodologies of complex systems’ modeling
  8. Complex Systems: concepts, literature, possibilities and limitations


The deadline for submission of entries is April 15. Details below and here.

obs. I've worked at Ipea for more than 5 years and I know some of the people leading the project. I can tell it is awesome to work with them and this is a great opportunity to expand the impact of complexity studies to policy applications.

On one hand, the project aims at pushing forward the modeling frontier, its methodologies and applications for the case of Brazil. On the other hand, the project pursues actual improvement on the understanding of public policies’ mechanisms and effects, through complex systems’ tools and concepts.

The book encompasses five broad themes: (1) concepts and methods; (2) computational tools; (3) public policy phenomena as complex systems (specifically: society, economics, ecology and cities); (4) applied examples in the world and its emergence in Brazil; and (5) possibilities of prognosis, scenarios and policy-effect analysis using complex systems tools.

The consultant is expected to deliver a proposed extended summary, a preliminary version to be discussed in a seminar in Brazil (July-September 2014) and the final version of the chapter.


[image credit: ? ]


Book Outline: Complex Systems and Public Policy
Complex systems in the context of this project are defined as systems in which a number of agents interact in a complex, non-linear manner and behavior emerges from simple rules. Simulation approach of these systems from a public policy perspective represents modeling relationships among citizens, firms, and institutions, bounded by regulatory measures, and spatial, political, and budgetary constraints. In sum, working with Complex Systems and Public Policies means creating experimental computational environments where relevant characteristics are formally described, and from which insights for policy improvement can be easily and low-costly evaluated.

LIST OF CHAPTERS

PART I. Complexity: theory and methods
1. Complex systems: concepts, literature, possibilities and limitations
2. Methods and methodologies of complex systems’ modeling
3. Operating complex systems

PART II. Public policy objects and complex systems’ approach
4. Society as a complex object
5. Economy as a complex object
6. Cities as complex objects
7. Ecology as a complex object

PART III: Applied modeling of complex systems to public policies.
8. Complexity theory in applied policy worldwide
9. Applications for Brazil

PART IV: Applications: specific cases
10. Agent-based models applied to transport planning
11. Learning analytics and agent-based modeling in education
12. Evolutionary models for the analysis of the Legislative

PART V: Complex public policies
13. The relevance of multiple models, sectors, and scales for public policy analysis
14. Simulating: scenarios, prospection and impact analysis for public policy

Monday, November 25, 2013

The determinants of agglomeration in Brazil: input-output, labor and knowledge externalities

Aguinaldo Maciente is a great colleague of mine at Ipea. He finished his PhD at Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) a few months ago. It could be particularly interesting to those readers working in Regional Science, Migration studies, Labor Markets and Geographic Labor Mobility.

Thesis: The determinants of agglomeration in Brazil: input-output, labor and knowledge externalities.

Abstract:
This research investigates industry agglomeration and coagglomeration patterns in Brazil, and assesses their association with the Marshallian forces that are commonly viewed as sources of agglomeration economies, namely the input-output and labor pooling externalities. Knowledge externalities, the third classic source of Marshallian agglomeration economies, are partially captured through labor-embodied knowledge usage. [...] The ONET database, which contains several skill measures for US occupations, is matched with Brazilian occupations and factor analysis is used to produce a set of ONET skill and knowledge groups. These skills groups are intended to describe the labor profile of industries and regions and constitute the basis for measures of labor and labor-embodied knowledge externalities for pairs of industries. The measures of input-output linkages and labor-use similarity are related to the observed agglomeration and coagglomeration patterns, in order to test for the possible sources of agglomeration economies in Brazil. Results indicate that Brazil has agglomeration levels, as measured by Ellison and Glaeser’s (1997) agglomeration index, that are slightly decreasing over time, but comparable to the international experience. However, the components of the agglomeration index reveal that Gini-type regional employment concentration and plant-level employment concentration are relatively high, despite their decrease from 1994 to 2010. That is, Brazil has most of its employment concentrated into relatively fewer regions and plants, when compared to results found in the literature, for example, for the United States. [...] Overall colocation patterns in Brazil seem to be more associated with labor and labor-embodied knowledge externalities than with input-output externalities. Natural advantages, such as agricultural and mining potential and road density are also positively associated with observed coagglomeration [...]

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

The Causes of Informal Housing - EPAINOS 2013 Prize Winner

Every year, the European Regional Science Association (ERSA) gives the EPAINOS award to a young scientist, under 33 years old. It makes me very glad to know that this years’ winner is Daniel da Mata!  Daniel has just finished his PhD in economics at Cambridge University and he is a brilliant researcher we have here at Ipea (Institute for Applied Economic Research).

Here is his awarded paper: "Disentangling the Causes of Informal Housing"

Abstract:
"This article aims to measure the main determinants of the expansion of informal settlements. The focus is on how urban poverty, rural-urban migration and land use regulations impact the growth of slums. I construct a structural model to explain the determinants of informal housing. The model supports the main empirical evidence regarding slums formation and it is able to quantitatively assess the role of each determinant of slums growth. The model is calibrated and estimated to be consistent with several statistics related to the Brazilian urbanization process from 1980 to 2010. I present several counterfactual experiments to assess the role of income, migration and land use regulation. The results show that these factors explain about half of the variation in slums growth between 1980 and 2010. I also perform ex-ante evaluation of the impacts of slum upgrading interventions and show how policies may have unintended adverse effects on slums formation."


By the way: Guilherme Resende was awarded the EPAINOS prize in 2009. Guilherme is another great researcher at Ipea.


Saturday, July 13, 2013

13th WCTR + Commute Time in Brazil




Dear readers, next week I'll be in Rio for the 13th WCTR. I'm presenting a working paper Tim Schwanen and I have recently published. In this study we explore 18 years of commute time trends in Brazil. I was planning a dedicated post to talk about this study but I've been quite busy these days. 


So here it is. You may download it here:



[Portuguese version]






ps. It would be great to meet some of you in case there is anyone out there that's also attending the conference. If there is anyone out there, just leave a comment of drop me an email.

Thursday, July 4, 2013

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Academic Impacts on Governments

It has become much easier to assess the academic impact of published papers and authors (Google Citations Page* and T. Reuters). However, the assessment of academic impact on public policy is not that straightforward, although it's a crucial issue for Research Institutes, Think-thanks and Funding Agencies.

A team at LSE leads a project on the subject and they are developing quantitative metrics for measuring the impact of research in the 'public sphere'. It's the Impact of Social Sciences Project self-recommending  Some podcasts of their latest events should be available here:

*I encourage you to register at Google Scholar Citations. This is one of the best ways for academics to compute citation metrics and track them over time. You only need a gmail account and Google does the rest for you. Besides, anyone can register!



Thursday, November 22, 2012

Land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon

With the increasing importance of environmental issues on the international agenda, the Brazilian Amazon is receiving increasing attention from the scientific community. Although I am not particularly involved in environmental issues, I'd like to share with you some papers on land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon.

The first five papers of the list are authored by a few colleagues of mine from Ipea (Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brazil).









  1. Weinhold et al (2011) Soybeans, poverty, and inequality in the Brazilian Amazon

  2. Guedes et al (2011) Ecological Endowments, Poverty Dynamics, and Land Use among Smallholders in the Brazilian Amazon

  3. Barbieri and Guedes (2012) Demographic dynamics, livelihoods and land use change in the Brazilian Amazonia: a longitudinal study for the Machadinho Region, 1985 to 2010

  4. Sydenstricker-Neto (2012) Population and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: a mediating perspective and a mixed-method analysis

  5. Andersen et al (2002) The dynamics of deforestation and economic growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Related Link:

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

A cellular automata intraurban model with prices and income-differentiated actors

Bernardo A. Furtado (a friend of mine from Ipea) have recently published this paper that I'd like to share with you:


A cellular automata intraurban model with prices and income-differentiated actors 
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 39(5) 897 – 924

Abstract:
This paper presents an intraurban cellular automata model that is an extension to White and Engelen’s pioneering model. The paper’s main contribution is to distinguish between agglomerative effects, determined by the attraction of the neighbourhood, and disagglomerative effects, driven by land prices, or land affordability. In order to do that, social heterogeneity is introduced in the model at the intraurban level. As a result, we can simulate both the evolution of land use and land prices. An application of the model and a sensitivity analysis indicate that neighborhood influence is the main driving force of cities’ spatial configurations. Prices, however, exert an important countereffect. Actually, the higher the influence of land prices, the faster land succession is observed. Finally, an important conclusion of the model is that intraurban models should not fail to differentiate actors by income level.


Evolution of actors in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 1900-2000

[Image Credit: Furtado et al (2012) ]
Label:


Related Links:

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Land Regulation in Brazilian Cities

It is somewhat difficult to find academic studies about Brazilian cities published in English. So here are some interesting papers I would recommend on Land Regulations in Brazilian Cities.
  1. Avila (2006) Urban Land Use Regulations in Brazilian Cities - Impacts on Urban Land Markets and Access of Low Income People to Land and Housing. This chapter starts only at page 216, buthe book as a whole is highly recommended!

  2. LallWang; da Mata (2006) Do Urban Land Regulations Influence Slum Formation? Evidence from Brazilian Cities (I saw this paper on Richard K. Green's blog)

  3. Smith; Raemaekers (1998) Land use pattern and transport in Curitiba

  4. Dowall; Monkkonen (2007) Consequences of the Plano Piloto: The Urban Development and Land Markets of Brasília (you may access the working paper version here)

If you have any other suggestions, let us know with a comment !

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Prata da Casa: Climate change in Brazil


new book! Jorge Hargrave and other colleagues at Ipea launched the book Climate Change in Brazil: economic, social and regulatory aspects at the 'Durban Climate Change Conference 2011'.










Sunday, November 27, 2011

NeW! 'Prata da Casa' session: regional and urban economics handbook

I'm starting a new post session called "Prata da Casa" to recommend some good research and publications by my colleagues here at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA).

"Prata da Casa" is a Portuguese expression that in this case refers to some good 'homegrown research'. So I'm inaugurating this session with a recent regional and urban economics handbook with emphasis on Brazil:

Regional and Urban Economics: Theories and methods with emphasis on Brazil (organized by Bruno Cruz, Bernardo Furtado, Leonardo Monasterio and Waldery Rodrigues Júnior) - Portuguese Version Only