Sunday, April 6, 2014

The motorcycle Kuznets curve

Nishitateno, S and Burke, P (2014) The motorcycle Kuznets curveJournal of Transport Geography. Volume 36, Pages 116–123.

The evolution of motorcycle ownership is a crucial issue for road safety, as motorcyclists are highly vulnerable road users. Analyzing a panel of 153 countries for the period 1963–2010, we document a motorcycle Kuznets curve which sees motorcycle dependence increase and then decrease as economies develop. Upswings in motorcycle ownership are particularly pronounced in densely populated countries. We also present macro-level evidence on the additional road fatalities associated with motorcycles. Our results indicate that many low-income countries face the prospect of an increasing number of motorcycle-related deaths over coming years unless adequate safety initiatives are implemented.

Fig. 4. Regression predictions for the motorcycle share of the motor vehicle fleet, for countries with mean and 90th-percentile log population density *.

(corresponding to 66 and 371 people per square kilometer, respectively). Prediction lines use a mean country fixed effect and the year-2010 time effect.