Showing posts with label Prata da Casa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prata da Casa. Show all posts

Friday, November 29, 2019

Awarded research on historical inequality in Brazil


I am very proud to share that my friend and colleague at Ipea Pedro Souza has been awarded the Prêmio Jabuti for his book 'A History of Inequality: the concentration of top incomes in Brazil between 1926-2013'. The Prêmio Jabuti (the "Tortoise Prize") is the most prestigious literary award in the country. The book is based on his PhD thesis, which has already received two national awards btw.

If you read Portuguese, you can buy Pedro's book here, or download his PhD thesis here. There is a paper in English summarizing some of the key findings of his research. I've also posted the English abstract of his thesis below.






Souza, Pedro H. G. F. de. “A desigualdade vista do topo : a concentração de renda entre os ricos no Brasil, 1926-2013”, 12 de setembro de 2016. https://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/22005.

Abstract:
This dissertation uses income tax tabulations to estimate top income shares over the long-run for Brazil. Between 1926 and 2013, the concentration of income at the top of the distribution combined stability and change, diverging from the European and American patterns in the 20th century. Contrary to benign industrialization and modernization theories, there was no overarching, long-term trend. Most of the time the income share of the top 1% of the adult population fluctuated within a 20%--25% range, even in recent years. Still, top income shares had temporary yet significant ups and downs which largely coincided with the country's most important political cycles. The top 1% income share increased during the Estado Novo and World War II, then declined in the early post-war years and even more so in the second half of the 1950s. The 1964 coup d'état reversed that trend and income inequality rose back to post-war levels after a few years of military rule. The 1970s were marked by instability, but top income shares surged again in the 1980s. The share of the 1% then decreased somewhat in the 1990s and perhaps the mid-2000s. There were no real changes since then. In addition, this dissertation analyzes the concentration of income among the rich, provides international comparisons of top income shares, and contrasts the income tax series with estimates from household surveys. The income tax series are also used to compute “corrected” Gini coefficients which take into account the underestimation of top incomes in household surveys. The major research questions are comparative and historically oriented, and I argue in favor of an institutional interpretation of the results. The motivation for and implications of this approach are presented in the more theoretical chapters that precede the empirical analysis. In these chapters, I engage with the history of ideas about inequality and social stratification and highlight the long and heterogeneous tradition of studies about the rich and the wealthy. My main argument is that the academic and political concern with distributional issues flourishes when inequality is conceived in binary or dichotomous terms.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

PolicySpace: agent-based modeling for public policy analysis

I've posted before about the "Humans of Simulated New York", a comprehensive agent-based model (ABM) of city life that is being led by Francis Tseng.

On a similar vein, my colleague from Ipea Bernardo Furtado has been developing the PolicySpace project, an agent-based modelling platform for public policy analysis. According to Furtado:


"PolicySpace is an agent-based model, including families, citizens, residences, businesses, markets, taxes, mobility, and municipalities, that allows “what-if” questions. It is an in silico laboratory, of extremely low relative cost. Yet, it is flexible, adaptable, that anticipates trajectories and, quantitatively, measures horizontal effects across sectors, places and times. The book reviews the literature, explains concepts, and describes the methodology. It details the model, its parameters, and the full process. It validates the proposal and illustrates with applications."



The platform allows for the ex-ante evaluation/simulation of public policy alternatives in a way that takes into account the emergent complexity of the interactions between portions of society and institutions, in space and time. PolicySpace was originally designed for the Brazilian case but it is easily adaptable to other contexts. The code is written in Python, it is open source and the full code is available on Github. The platform is also modular, so it can expanded in a flexible way to gradually incorporate different aspects considered to be relevant for a variety of policy realms. For example, Francis Tseng is further expanding the PolicySpace platform to incorporate public and private urban transportation at fine spatial scale.

Earlier this year, Bernardo published a book where he presents a literature review of ABM and where he introduces, validates and demonstrates applications of PolicySpace. The book PDF is freely available both in English and in Portuguese.

Give Bernardo a shout if you would like to collaborate on the project, use it in your own applications or just give him some feedback.  He is co-organizing a special issue on Complexity Science and Public Policy, so some of you might be interested in that as well.


image credit: Francis Tseng and Bernardo Furtado

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Humans of Simulated New York: comprehensive ABM model of city life

Here is a very interesting project that aims towards building agent based models to simulate cities and the impacts of policies on them. The project is available on GitHub. Kudos to the authors, who are all on Twitter btw Francis Tseng, Fei Liu and Bernardo Furtado.

Tseng, F., Liu, F., & Furtado, B. A. (2017). Humans of Simulated New York (HOSNY): an exploratory comprehensive model of city life. arXiv preprint arXiv:1703.05240.

Abstract:
The model presented in this paper experiments with a comprehensive simulant agent in order to provide an exploratory platform in which simulation modelers may try alternative scenarios and participation in policy decision-making. The framework is built in a computationally distributed online format in which users can join in and visually explore the results. Modeled activity involves daily routine errands, such as shopping, visiting the doctor or engaging in the labor market. Further, agents make everyday decisions based on individual behavioral attributes and minimal requirements, according to social and contagion networks. Fully developed firms and governments are also included in the model allowing for taxes collection, production decisions, bankruptcy and change in ownership. The contributions to the literature are multifold. They include (a) a comprehensive model with detailing of the agents and firms' activities and processes and original use of simultaneously (b) reinforcement learning for firm pricing and demand allocation; (c) social contagion for disease spreading and social network for hiring opportunities; and (d) Bayesian networks for demographic-like generation of agents. All of that within a (e) visually rich environment and multiple use of databases. Hence, the model provides a comprehensive framework from where interactions among citizens, firms and governments can be easily explored allowing for learning and visualization of policies and scenarios.

credit: Francis Tseng

Friday, September 30, 2016

Empty spaces in the crowd: Residential vacancy in São Paulo

Nadalin, V., & Igliori, D. (2016). Empty spaces in the crowd. Residential vacancy in São Paulo’s city centre. Urban Studies, DOI: 10.1177/0042098016666498.

Abstract
In the past decades, when São Paulo became the national manufacturing centre, it has experienced great population growth. Since then, many housing problems have emerged. In addition, the difficulties that inner cities face in attracting jobs and maintaining economic activities are particularly challenging. Indeed, even if many cities have successfully regenerated their central areas, the so-called inner city problem is still very much alive in the case of São Paulo. As a result although the city centre has abundant urban infrastructure it still has plenty of vacant spaces, including residential buildings. One could say that São Paulo’s city centre is characterised by a large number of empty spaces in an area that is simultaneously crowded with buildings and urban facilities. This paper intends to contribute to the empirical analysis of the determinants of vacancy rates, with a particular focus on historical city centres, using São Paulo Metropolitan Area as our case study. Our empirical analysis relies on district-level data for the years 2000 and 2010, and combines standard spatial econometric methods with hedonic modelling. Our results suggest that there are three main groups of determinants: individual buildings characteristics, mobility of households and neighbourhood quality. We find evidence that the historic central city is a distinctive submarket, needing special urban policies. Its determinants work differently when compared with the housing markets of other areas across the city.
credit: Nadalin & Igliori, 2016

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Incorporating Cognitively Perceived Urban Space in Economic Models

Furtado, B. A. (2011). Neighbourhoods in urban economics: incorporating cognitively perceived urban space in economic models. Urban Studies, doi:10.1177/0042098010391288.
Abstract:
This paper proposes that urban economic analysis would benefit from the use of cognitively perceived neighbourhoods, which are discussed within urban studies. Georeferenced data should be aggregated by spatially bounded units that are identifiable by citizens in order to enrich one-dimensional distance as the sole variable to bring urban complexity into economic models. Multivariate analysis is applied to data from Belo Horizonte, Brazil, to formulate four indices, ranked by neighbourhoods that together represent a spatially complex, non-linear influence on urban real estate markets. The results of the indices by neighbourhood are then tested against a traditional specification in an econometrics exercise that does not include the concepts and indices put forward. The definition of neighbourhood used and the empirical results provide a thorough description of urban fabric that can fully and more accurately represent urban influence in economics while avoiding abstract distance measurement.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Spatial income inequality in Brazil, 1872–2000

Reis, E. (2014). Spatial income inequality in Brazil, 1872–2000. Economia,15(2), 119-140. 

*Thanks Leo Monasterio for the tip.


Abstract:
The paper provides historical perspectives on spatial economic inequalities in Brazil making use of a database on Brazilian municipalities from 1872 to 2000. A suit of maps and graphs describe the geographic factors shaping the historical development of the Brazilian economy highlighting the role of transport costs and its consequences for the spatial dynamics of income per capita and labor productivity. The remaining of the paper estimates econometric models of growth convergence for municipal income per capita and labor productivity. From 1920 onwards analyses are refined, firstly, by disaggregating the models for urban and rural activities; secondly, by assuming spatial correlation among variables of the model; and, thirdly, by enlarging the model to take account of the long run determinants of spatial growth convergence. Empirical results endorse the historical preeminence of geographic factors – in particular accessibility and transport conditions – as opposed to institutional conditions. The conclusion summarizes the results and proposes research extensions.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

What do we know about the Top Incomes?

Marcelo Medeiros and Pedro Souza (two excellent researches) give an answer to this question in a recent study:



Abstract:
We review the literature about the rich, the affluent and the top incomes focusing in two issues: identification and measurement, and the analysis of the determinants of richness. The review discusses data sources, indicators, populations and units of analysis used for the identification of the rich, approaches used to construct affluence lines and measures of richness. It also surveys empirical results about the composition of the incomes of the rich and the role of direct determinants of richness, such as individual characteristics, the State and the structure of production. We cover literature since the early twentieth century but give special attention to the research conducted after the 2000s.

Monday, November 25, 2013

The determinants of agglomeration in Brazil: input-output, labor and knowledge externalities

Aguinaldo Maciente is a great colleague of mine at Ipea. He finished his PhD at Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) a few months ago. It could be particularly interesting to those readers working in Regional Science, Migration studies, Labor Markets and Geographic Labor Mobility.

Thesis: The determinants of agglomeration in Brazil: input-output, labor and knowledge externalities.

Abstract:
This research investigates industry agglomeration and coagglomeration patterns in Brazil, and assesses their association with the Marshallian forces that are commonly viewed as sources of agglomeration economies, namely the input-output and labor pooling externalities. Knowledge externalities, the third classic source of Marshallian agglomeration economies, are partially captured through labor-embodied knowledge usage. [...] The ONET database, which contains several skill measures for US occupations, is matched with Brazilian occupations and factor analysis is used to produce a set of ONET skill and knowledge groups. These skills groups are intended to describe the labor profile of industries and regions and constitute the basis for measures of labor and labor-embodied knowledge externalities for pairs of industries. The measures of input-output linkages and labor-use similarity are related to the observed agglomeration and coagglomeration patterns, in order to test for the possible sources of agglomeration economies in Brazil. Results indicate that Brazil has agglomeration levels, as measured by Ellison and Glaeser’s (1997) agglomeration index, that are slightly decreasing over time, but comparable to the international experience. However, the components of the agglomeration index reveal that Gini-type regional employment concentration and plant-level employment concentration are relatively high, despite their decrease from 1994 to 2010. That is, Brazil has most of its employment concentrated into relatively fewer regions and plants, when compared to results found in the literature, for example, for the United States. [...] Overall colocation patterns in Brazil seem to be more associated with labor and labor-embodied knowledge externalities than with input-output externalities. Natural advantages, such as agricultural and mining potential and road density are also positively associated with observed coagglomeration [...]

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

The Causes of Informal Housing - EPAINOS 2013 Prize Winner

Every year, the European Regional Science Association (ERSA) gives the EPAINOS award to a young scientist, under 33 years old. It makes me very glad to know that this years’ winner is Daniel da Mata!  Daniel has just finished his PhD in economics at Cambridge University and he is a brilliant researcher we have here at Ipea (Institute for Applied Economic Research).

Here is his awarded paper: "Disentangling the Causes of Informal Housing"

Abstract:
"This article aims to measure the main determinants of the expansion of informal settlements. The focus is on how urban poverty, rural-urban migration and land use regulations impact the growth of slums. I construct a structural model to explain the determinants of informal housing. The model supports the main empirical evidence regarding slums formation and it is able to quantitatively assess the role of each determinant of slums growth. The model is calibrated and estimated to be consistent with several statistics related to the Brazilian urbanization process from 1980 to 2010. I present several counterfactual experiments to assess the role of income, migration and land use regulation. The results show that these factors explain about half of the variation in slums growth between 1980 and 2010. I also perform ex-ante evaluation of the impacts of slum upgrading interventions and show how policies may have unintended adverse effects on slums formation."


By the way: Guilherme Resende was awarded the EPAINOS prize in 2009. Guilherme is another great researcher at Ipea.


Thursday, July 4, 2013

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Wage differentials between public and private sector workers and income inequality in Brazil





The paper is published in Portuguese only  the title translation is my bad  but you may read the abstract:

We estimate the contribution of the wage differential between workers with the same attributes in the public and private sectors to the household per capita income inequality in Brazil. The estimate is based on counterfactual simulations and the contribution to inequality on a factor decomposition of the Gini coefficient. Data comes from the Brazilian National Household Survey PNAD 2009. The differential corresponds approximately to 17% of the wage bill of workers in the public sector, is regressive and highly concentrated. However, because it amounts to a small share of the total income (1%) its contribution to the total inequality is of 3%. The sector composition effects on inequality are times higher than the segmentation (price) effects. These conclusions are robust to changes in the definition of the sectors and to different estimation techniques.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon

With the increasing importance of environmental issues on the international agenda, the Brazilian Amazon is receiving increasing attention from the scientific community. Although I am not particularly involved in environmental issues, I'd like to share with you some papers on land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon.

The first five papers of the list are authored by a few colleagues of mine from Ipea (Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brazil).









  1. Weinhold et al (2011) Soybeans, poverty, and inequality in the Brazilian Amazon

  2. Guedes et al (2011) Ecological Endowments, Poverty Dynamics, and Land Use among Smallholders in the Brazilian Amazon

  3. Barbieri and Guedes (2012) Demographic dynamics, livelihoods and land use change in the Brazilian Amazonia: a longitudinal study for the Machadinho Region, 1985 to 2010

  4. Sydenstricker-Neto (2012) Population and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: a mediating perspective and a mixed-method analysis

  5. Andersen et al (2002) The dynamics of deforestation and economic growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Related Link:

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

A cellular automata intraurban model with prices and income-differentiated actors

Bernardo A. Furtado (a friend of mine from Ipea) have recently published this paper that I'd like to share with you:


A cellular automata intraurban model with prices and income-differentiated actors 
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 39(5) 897 – 924

Abstract:
This paper presents an intraurban cellular automata model that is an extension to White and Engelen’s pioneering model. The paper’s main contribution is to distinguish between agglomerative effects, determined by the attraction of the neighbourhood, and disagglomerative effects, driven by land prices, or land affordability. In order to do that, social heterogeneity is introduced in the model at the intraurban level. As a result, we can simulate both the evolution of land use and land prices. An application of the model and a sensitivity analysis indicate that neighborhood influence is the main driving force of cities’ spatial configurations. Prices, however, exert an important countereffect. Actually, the higher the influence of land prices, the faster land succession is observed. Finally, an important conclusion of the model is that intraurban models should not fail to differentiate actors by income level.


Evolution of actors in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 1900-2000

[Image Credit: Furtado et al (2012) ]
Label:


Related Links:

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Immigration and regional inequality in Brazil

A new paper by Irineu and Leo Monasterio. Congrats!

Immigration and the origins of regional inequality: Government-sponsored European migration to southern Brazil before World War I.

Abstract

This paper studies the long-term consequences of the government-sponsored programs of European immigration to Southern Brazil before the Great War. We find that the municipalities closer to the original sites of nineteenth century government sponsored settlements (colônias) have higher per capita income, less poverty and dependence on Bolsa Família cash transfers, better health and education outcomes; and for the areas close to German colonies, also less inequality of income and educational outcomes than otherwise. Since that is a reduced form relationship, we then attempt to identify the relative importance of more egalitarian landholdings and higher initial human capital in determining those outcomes. Our findings are suggestive that more egalitarian land distribution played a more important role than higher initial human capital in achieving the good outcomes associated with closeness to a colônia.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Land Regulation in Brazilian Cities

It is somewhat difficult to find academic studies about Brazilian cities published in English. So here are some interesting papers I would recommend on Land Regulations in Brazilian Cities.
  1. Avila (2006) Urban Land Use Regulations in Brazilian Cities - Impacts on Urban Land Markets and Access of Low Income People to Land and Housing. This chapter starts only at page 216, buthe book as a whole is highly recommended!

  2. Lall; Wang; da Mata (2006) Do Urban Land Regulations Influence Slum Formation? Evidence from Brazilian Cities (I saw this paper on Richard K. Green's blog)

  3. Smith; Raemaekers (1998) Land use pattern and transport in Curitiba

  4. Dowall; Monkkonen (2007) Consequences of the Plano Piloto: The Urban Development and Land Markets of Brasília (you may access the working paper version here)

If you have any other suggestions, let us know with a comment !

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Prata da Casa: Climate change in Brazil


new book! Jorge Hargrave and other colleagues at Ipea launched the book Climate Change in Brazil: economic, social and regulatory aspects at the 'Durban Climate Change Conference 2011'.










Sunday, November 27, 2011

NeW! 'Prata da Casa' session: regional and urban economics handbook

I'm starting a new post session called "Prata da Casa" to recommend some good research and publications by my colleagues here at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA).

"Prata da Casa" is a Portuguese expression that in this case refers to some good 'homegrown research'. So I'm inaugurating this session with a recent regional and urban economics handbook with emphasis on Brazil:

Regional and Urban Economics: Theories and methods with emphasis on Brazil (organized by Bruno Cruz, Bernardo Furtado, Leonardo Monasterio and Waldery Rodrigues Júnior) - Portuguese Version Only